APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC.
Here’s whether APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. (ARI) is worth buying in 2026 — based on weekly-updated price trend, RSI momentum, and return vs. the S&P 500. Our current read: Bearish.
Concerns: trading below the 200-day MA (long-term downtrend); below the 50-day MA (medium-term momentum negative); 50-day MA is falling (-5.53% over 10 days); RSI 13 — oversold; weak 1-year return of -31.1%; 3-month momentum negative (-39.1%); rising volume on a downtrend (distribution, 1.42x avg). Currently 39.8% off its 52-week high. Score: -7/7.
ARI is trading below its 200-day MA ($10.31) — a key warning sign the longer-term trend is under pressure. An RSI of 13.5 has dropped into oversold territory, which has historically preceded short-term bounces. The 1-year return of -31.1% compares to +16.5% for SPY (trailed the market by 47.5%). The current 39.8% drawdown from the 52-week high reflects elevated risk for momentum-based strategies.